To arrive at the edge of the world's knowledge, seek out the most complex and sophisticated minds, put them in a room together, and have them ask each other the questions they are asking themselves.
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Condensing it All Into Four Big Problems and a Killer App Solution
With Philip Tetlock |
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Skillful Backward and Forward Reasoning in Time: Superforecasting Requires "Counterfactualizing"
With Philip Tetlock |
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Counterfactual History: The Elusive Control Groups in Policy Debates
With Philip Tetlock |
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Forecasting Tournaments: What We Discover When We Start Scoring Accuracy
With Philip Tetlock |
