WHY ENERGY EXPERTS GET THINGS WRONG SO OFTEN: A history of failed guesses shows how hard it is to forecast fuels of the future.

[ Tue. Mar. 19. 2013 ]

However, Tetlock found two distinguishable groups of thinkers among the experts: hedgehogs and foxes.

...These findings taught Tetlock, the author of Expert Political Judgment, a few lessons about pundits. They "were hard pressed to do better than chance, were overconfident, and were reluctant to change their minds in response to new evidence. That combination doesn't exactly make for a flattering portrait of the punditocracy," he recently told Edge.org