[ Thu. Mar. 21. 2013 ]

In 2006, Philip E. Tetlock published a landmark book called "Expert Political Judgment." While his findings obviously don't apply to me, Tetlock demonstrated that pundits and experts are terrible at making predictions. …

… Tetlock is now recruiting for Year 3. (You can match wits against the world by visiting He believes that this kind of process may help depolarize politics. If you take Republicans and Democrats and ask them to make a series of narrow predictions, they'll have to put aside their grand notions and think clearly about the imminently falsifiable.

[ED NOTE: See: "How To Win At Forecasting: A Conversation with Philip Tetlock" on Edge]