FORECASTING FOX

[ Thu. Mar. 21. 2013 ]

In 2006, Philip E. Tetlock published a landmark book called "Expert Political Judgment." While his findings obviously don't apply to me, Tetlock demonstrated that pundits and experts are terrible at making predictions. …

… Tetlock is now recruiting for Year 3. (You can match wits against the world by visiting http:www.goodjudgmentproject.com.) He believes that this kind of process may help depolarize politics. If you take Republicans and Democrats and ask them to make a series of narrow predictions, they'll have to put aside their grand notions and think clearly about the imminently falsifiable.

[ED NOTE: See: "How To Win At Forecasting: A Conversation with Philip Tetlock" on Edge http://bit.ly/14aZrqQ]