Of course there are also the famous differences between the productivities of the economies of different countries: the differing national average productivities of Japan and the United States and France and Germany. Actually, though, there are differences between the productivities and wealths of different business sectors within the same country. For example, the German metal-working industry has a productivity rivaling that of the United States, so the Germans are certainly capable of organizing industries well, but the German beer-brewing industry is less than half as productive as the American beer-brewing industry. Or take Japan — we Americans are paranoid about the supposed efficiency of Japanese business, and the fact is that the Japanese steel industry is 45% more productive than the American steel industry. Why is it, then, that the Japanese food-producing industry is less than 1/3 as productive and efficient as the American food-processing industry? Still another example: in Korea, the steel industry is equal in efficiency to American steel making, but all other Korean industries lag behind the United States. What is it about the different organization of the German beer brewers and the German metal workers, or the different organization of the Japanese food processors and the Japanese car manufacturers, that accounts for the different productivities of these sectors within a given country?

Obviously, the answers to these questions about the different success of organizations partly depend upon idiosyncracies of individuals. The success of Microsoft must have something to do with Bill Gates. If an idiot were in command of Microsoft, then however superior Microsoft's organization, Microsoft would be unlikely to be a successful business. But nevertheless one can still ask , all other things being equal, or else in the long run, or else on the average, what form of organization of human groups is best? I'm sure that there are many of you here who are involved with businesses that would like to know the answer to that question.

I propose to try to learn from human history. Human history over the last 13,000 years comprises tens of thousands of different experiments. Each human society represents a different natural experiment in organizing human groups. Human societies have been organized very differently, and the outcomes have been very different. Some societies have been much more productive and innovative than others. What can we learn from these natural experiments of history that will help us all get rich? I propose to go over two batches of natural experiments that will give you insights into how to get rich.

The first batch of natural experiments concerns understanding the effects of isolation and of group size and of communication with other groups on the productivity of human societies. Let's learn from the extreme examples of isolation of human societies. If isolation has any effect on human societies, the places we're most likely to see that effect are the histories of those two islands off southeastern Australia called Tasmania and Flinders Island. They lie about 200 miles off the southeast coast of Australia and are separated today from Australia by Bass Straits, but those straits are relatively shallow, so their floor lay above sea level at glacial times of low sea level up to about 10,000 years ago. The Bass Straits between Tasmania and Australia were then dry land, and Tasmania was part of the Australian mainland, just as Britain used to be part of the European mainland. When the glaciers melted, sea level rose and cut off Tasmania from the Australian mainland. So when Tasmania and Flinders were part of the Australian mainland, Australian Aborigines walked down to Tasmania and Flinders from the mainland.