Edge in the News: 2015

Vox [8.21.15]

The weekend of July 30, a group of intellectual heavyweights met at a beautiful vineyard in California's Napa Valley. Their agenda was modest: learn how to predict the future. ...The "class," organized by Edge, was led by Philip Tetlock, a University of Pennsylvania psychologist who has made the study of prediction his life's work. For the past several years, Tetlock and his colleagues have been running a project supported by the US intelligence community. Their goal is to find ways to accurately predict major events in world affairs, such as whether Vladimir Putin will lose power in Russia.

Now they're sharing what they've found with the world.The results are astonishing: Tetlock's team found out that some people were "superforecasters" who, when placed in teams, can produce a surprisingly good track record at predicting the future of world affairs. And Tetlock thinks he might know why. ...

Arts & Letters Daily [8.19.15]

Tom Friedman vs. Bill Flack. One is a noted columnist, the other an irrigation specialist. One is world-famous, the other a nobody. Yet Flack is better at forecasting the future...

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung [8.15.15]

Big History, since the nineties in the making, if you do not want to go back to Alexander von Humboldt's "Cosmos", operated a popular interest. The Israeli military historian Yuval Noah Harari was with his lectures on the history of mankind an overnight Youtube star. David Christian, the Grand Master of metadiscipline students running down the door, when he offered his standard work "Maps of Time" at the Australian Macquarie University as a lecture. ...

The History Channel is currently running a ten-part series, which is based on Christian concept. From the Third Culture to the publisher John Brockman of Energizers Christian and ascetic Harari were welcomed with open arms. Christian was allowed to perform his mission to an enthusiastic audience of Californian Ted Talks. Here, the circuit closed to world improvement dreams of the Californian Ideology. Big History transported also an ethical and anthropological message. What is man, in what context it moves? Such questions arise as if by magic, if you put him in the cosmic appearance. ...

The Browser [8.12.15]

Daniel Kahneman & Philip Tetlock et al | Edge | 12th August 2015

Expert discussion of forecasting. First case study: The raid which killed Osama Bin Laden. “It’s an interesting fact that in very high stakes national security debates people don’t think it’s possible to make very granular probability estimates. They seem to act as though ‘things are going to happen’, and there’s ‘maybe’ and ‘things aren’t going to happen’. They act as though there will be only three levels of uncertainly”