[DAVID
GELERNTER:] Questions about
the evolution of software
in the big picture are worth
asking. It's important that
we don't lose sight of the
fact that some of the key
issues in software don't
have anything to do with
big strategic questions,
they have to do with the
fact that the software that's
becoming ubiquitous and
that so many people rely
on is so crummy, and that
for so many people software
and in fact the whole
world of electronics
is a constant pain. The
computers we're inflicting
on people are more a cause
for irritation and confusion
and dissatisfaction and
angst than a positive benefit.
One thing that's going to
happen is clearly a tactical
issue; we're going to throw
out the crummy, primitive
software on which we rely,
and see a completely new
generation of software very
soon.
If you look at where we
are in the evolution of
the desktop computer today,
the machine is about 20
to 25 years old. Relatively
speaking we're roughly where
the airplane was in the
late 1920s. A lot of work
had been done but we were
yet to see the first even
quasi-proto modern airplane,
which was the DC3 of 1935.
In the evolution of desktop
computing we haven't even
reached DC3 level. We're
a tremendously self-conscious
and self-aware society,
and yet we have to keep
in mind how much we haven't
done, and how crummy and
primitive much of what we've
built is. For most people
a new electronic gadget
is a disaster, another incomprehensible
users manual or help set,
things that break, don't
work, that people can never
figure out; features they
don't need and don't understand.
All of these are just tactical
issues, but they are important
to the quality of life of
people who depend on computers,
which increasingly is everybody.
When I look at where software
is heading and what is it
really doing, what's happening
and what will happen with
the emergence of a new generation
of information-management
systems, as we discard Windows
and NT these systems
that are 1960s, 1970s systems
on which we rely today,
we'll see a transition similar
to what happened during
the 19th century, when people's
sense of space suddenly
changed. If you compare
the world of 1800 to the
world of 1900, people's
sense of space was tremendously
limited and local and restricted
in 1800. If you look at
a New England village of
the time, you can see this
dramatically, everything
is on site, a small cluster
of houses, in which everything
that needs to be done is
done, and fields beyond,
and beyond the fields a
forest.
People traveled to some
extent, but they didn't
travel often, most people
rarely traveled at all.
The picture of space outside
people's own local space
was exceptionally fuzzy.
Today, our picture of time
is equally fuzzy; we have
an idea of our local time
and what happened today
and yesterday, and what's
going to happen next week,
what happened the last few
weeks, but outside of this,
our view of time is as restricted
and local as people's view
of space was around 1800.
If you look at what happened
in the 19th century as transportation
became available, cheap
and ubiquitous, all of a
sudden people developed
a sense of space beyond
their own local spaces,
and the world changed dramatically.
It wasn't just that people
got around more and the
economy changed and wealth
was created. There was a
tremendous change in the
intellectual status of life.
People moved outside their
intellectual burrows; religion
collapsed; the character
of arts changed during the
19th century far more than
it has during the 20th century
or during any other century
as the people's lives became
fundamentally less internal,
less spiritual, because
they had more to do. They
had places to go, they had
things to see. When we look
at the collapse of religion
in the 19th century, it
had far less to do with
science than with technology,
the technology of transportation
that changed people's view
of space and put the world
at people's beck and call,
in a sense. In 1800 this
country was deeply religious;
in 1900 religion had already
become a footnote. And art
had fundamentally changed
in character as well.
What's going to happen,
what software will do over
the next few years
this has already started
to happen and will accelerate
is that our software
will be time-based, rather
than space-based. We'll
deal with streams of information
rather than chaotic file
systems that are based on
1940s idea of desks and
file cabinets. The transition
to a software world where
we have a stream with a
past, present and future
is a transition to a world
in which people have a much
more acute sense of time
outside their own local
week, or month in
which they now have a clear
idea of what was different,
why February of 1997 was
different from February
of 1994, which most people
today don't have a clear
picture of.
When we ask ourselves what
the effect will be of time
coming into focus the way
space came into focus during
the 19th century, we can
count on the fact that the
consequences will be big.
It won't cause the kind
of change in our spiritual
life that space coming into
focus did, because we've
moved as far outside as
we can get, pretty much.
We won't see any further
fundamental changes in our
attitude towards art or
religion all that
has happened already. We're
apt to see other incalculably
large affects on the way
we deal with the world and
with each other, and looking
back at this world today
it will look more or less
the way 1800 did from the
vantage point of 1900. Not
just a world with fewer
gadgets, but a world with
a fundamentally different
relationship to space and
time. From the small details
of our crummy software to
the biggest and most abstract
issues of how we deal with
the world at large, this
is a big story.
"Streams"
is a software project I've
been obsessed with. In the
early '90s it was clear
to me that the operating
system, the standard world
in which I lived, was collapsing.
For me and the academic
community it was Unix; but
it was the same in the world
of Windows or the world
of Mac or whatever world
you were in. In the early
90s we'd been online solidly
for at least a decade; I
was a graduate student in
the early 80s when the first
desktop computers hit the
stands. By the early 90s
there was too much, it was
breaking down. The flow
of email, the number of
files we had because we
kept making more and they
kept accumulating, we no
longer threw them out every
few years when we threw
out the machine, they just
grew to a larger and larger
assemblage.
In the early 90s we were
seeing electronic images,
electronic faxes and stuff
like that. The Web hadn't
hit yet but it was clear
to some of us what was coming
and we talked about it and
we wrote about it. The Internet
was already big in the early
90s, and it was clear that
the software we had was
no good. It was designed
for a different age. Unix
was built at Bell Labs in
the 1970s for a radically
different technology world
where computing power was
rare and expensive, memories
were small, disks were small,
bandwidth was expensive,
email was non-existent,
the net was an esoteric
fringe phenomenon. And that
was the software we were
using to run our lives in
1991, 1992. It was clear
it was no good, it was broken,
and it was clear that things
were not going to get any
better in terms of managing
our online lives. It seemed
to us at that point that
we needed to throw out this
60s and 70s stuff.
The Unix idea of a file
system copied so faithfully
from the 1941 Steelcase
file cabinet, which had
its files and it had its
folders, and the Xerox idea
of a desktop with its icons
of wastepaper baskets and
stuff just like the offices
that we were supposed to
be leaving behind us, all
this stuff copied faithful
from the pre-electronic
age. It was a good way to
get started, but it was
no good anymore. We needed
something that was designed
for computers. Forms and
ways of doing business that
were electronic and software-based,
as opposed to being cribbed
from what people knew how
to do in 1944. They did
well in 1944 but by 1991
it was no longer the way
to operate in a software
and electronic-based world.
It seemed to us that we
wanted to arrange our stuff
in time rather than in space.
Instead of spreading it
out on a virtual desktop
in front of us we wanted
all our information to accumulate
in a kind of time line,
or a diary or narrative
with a past, present and
future, or a stream, as
we called the software.
Every piece of information
that came into my life,
whether it was an email,
or eventually a URL, or
a fax or an image or a digital
photo or a voice mail, or
the 15th draft of a book
chapter, all pieces of information
would be plopped down at
the end of a growing stream.
By looking at this stream
I'd be looking at my entire
information life, I would
drop the absurd idea of
giving files names
the whole idea of names
and directories had rendered
itself ridiculous, and a
burden. If we dropped everything
into the stream and we provided
powerful searching and indexing
tools and powerful browsing
tools, and we allowed time
itself to guide us, we'd
have a much better tool
than trying to remember,
am I looking for letter
to John number 15B or am
I looking for new new new
letter to John prime. Instead
I could say I'm looking
for the letter to John I
wrote last week, and go
to last week and browse.
It was clear that by keeping
our stuff in a time line
we could throw away the
idea of names, we could
throw away the idea of files
and folders, we could throw
away the desktop. Instead
we'd have the stream, which
was a virtual object that
we could look at using any
computer and no longer have
to worry whether I put the
file at work or at home,
or in the laptop or the
palm pilot. The stream was
a virtual structure and
by looking at it, tuning
it in, I tuned in my life,
and I could tune it in from
any computer. It had a future
as well, so if I was going
to do something next Friday,
I'd drop into the future,
and next Friday would flow
to the present, the present
would flow to the past.
To make a long story short
we built the software and
the software was the basis
of a world view, an approach
to software and the way
of dealing with information.
It was also a commercial
proposition. That's got
intellectual content in
a way because for so many
of us we have been challenged,
asked whether the intellectual
center of gravity and technology
has not moved away from
the university into the
private sector. I thought
it was a rotten idea, I
resisted this heavily. I
had a bet with my graduate
students in the mid-90s.
I would try to fund this
project by the usual government
funding ways and they would
try and fund it by private
investors, and whoever got
the money first, that's
the way we would go. I thought
there was no contest, I
had all sorts of Washington
funding contacts, but they
beat me hands down. When
I was trying to wangle invitations
to Washington to talk about
this stuff, they would get
private investors to hop
on a plane and fly to New
Haven to see it. The difference
in energy level between
the private and the Washington
sector was enormous. And
bigots like myself, who
didn't want to hear about
private industry or private
spending or the private
sector, who believed in
the university, as I still
do, in principle were confronted
with the fact that there
was a radically higher energy
level among people who had
made a billion dollars and
wanted to make another billion,
than people who had got
tenure and who were now
bucking for what? A chair,
or whatever.
The academic world was more
restricted in terms of what
it could offer greedy people,
and greed drives the world,
one of the things which
you confront as you get
older. Reluctantly. So this
story is a commercial story
also, and raises questions
about the future of the
university where
the smart people are, where
the graduate students go,
where the dollars are, where
the energy is, where the
activity is. It hasn't been
raised in quite the same
way in some of the sciences
as it has in technology.
It certainly has become
a big issue in biology and
in medicine. The University,
forgetting about software,
and forgetting about the
future of the stream, fiddling
while Rome burns, or whatever
it does, thinks that it's
going to come to grips with
the world by putting course
notes on the Web. But we're
dealing with something much
bigger and much deeper than
that.
What Yale charges for an
education, as you know,
is simply incredible. What
it delivers is not worth
what it charges. It gets
by today on its reputation
and in fact can get good
jobs for its graduates.
However, we're resting on
our laurels. All these are
big changes. And the changes
that will happen in this
nation's intellectual life
when the university as we
know it today collapses.
The Yales and the Harvards,
will do okay, but the 98%
of the nation's universities
that are not the Yales and
Harvards and the MITs, when
they collapse, intellectual
life will be different,
and that will be a big change,
too. We're not thinking
about this enough. And I
know the universities are
not.